Automotive technology adoption is entering a more varied phase.
ICE vehicles continue to dominate large parts of the global vehicle parc, while hybrids, EVs, connected platforms and advanced driver-assistance technologies are gaining ground across different markets and segments.
Electric car sales exceeded 20 million globally in 2025, representing around one in four new cars sold.
Adoption, however, remains uneven.
China reached almost 55% electric sales penetration, Europe approached 28%, while the US remained below 10%.
For automotive companies, these differences make demand forecasting increasingly important.
Product planning, capacity allocation and technology investments depend on understanding which technologies are likely to scale, where demand will emerge, and over what timeframe.
Adoption Is Developing Along Multiple Technology Curves
- China shows the speed at which EV adoption can progress when manufacturing scale, product availability, infrastructure and vehicle economics reinforce one another.
More than 13 million electric cars were sold in China in 2025, while almost 700 electric car models were available in the market. - Europe presents a different pattern. BEVs continue to gain share, while hybrids remain significant, reflecting differences in regulation, consumer preferences and vehicle economics.
- In the US, adoption is more concentrated in larger vehicles, with light trucks and SUVs accounting for 85% of domestic EV registrations in Q3 2025.
Emerging markets add further variation.
India, for example, has seen stronger electrification in two- and three-wheelers than in passenger cars.
The market recorded 880,000 electric two-wheeler sales and 580,000 electric three-wheeler sales in 2023.
These patterns matter for demand forecasting because a global technology growth rate can conceal substantial differences between markets, segments and applications.
What Will Shape the Next Adoption Inflection Point As per Nexdigm’s research
Several variables will influence the pace and scale of future demand.
Vehicle economics, including falling battery costs and lower operating expenses, can improve the business case for electrification, particularly for high-utilization fleets.
Infrastructure availability can influence the pace at which EV demand converts from consumer interest into vehicle purchases, given that global public charging infrastructure has expanded significantly but remains uneven across markets.
Vehicle availability through the expanding OEM pipeline includes nearly 1,000 electric car models available globally in 2025, representing around 40% of available car models to increase consumer choice and widen the addressable market.
Regulation and consumer behaviour, encompassing emissions requirements, incentives, purchase prices, charging access and range expectations, continue to influence adoption decisions.
Together, these variables create different demand trajectories for ICE, hybrid, EV and connected vehicle technologies.
Demand Opportunities Are Also Segment-Specific.
Passenger vehicles represent the largest electric-vehicle opportunity by volume, but commercial applications can develop through different demand drivers.
- Electric light commercial vehicles can benefit from predictable routes and depot charging.
- Heavy-duty fleets can achieve stronger economics through high utilization and lower energy costs.
- Two- and three-wheelers can see faster adoption where lower battery requirements, shorter travel distances and fuel-cost sensitivity support electrification.
The opportunity also extends beyond powertrains.
Software-defined vehicles, ADAS, battery-management systems and faster-charging technologies are becoming increasingly connected to the broader vehicle technology ecosystem.
For companies planning their technology portfolios, demand therefore needs to be assessed across market, vehicle segment, technology and adoption timeframe.
Nexdigm’s Framework for Vehicle Adoption Demand Forecasting
Nexdigm’s vehicle adoption approach can connect these variables into a structured demand forecast.
- Establish the demand baseline by examining historical vehicle sales, technology penetration, vehicle parc, replacement cycles and segment-level trends which establish the starting point for the forecast.
- Identify the demand drivers by evaluating total cost of ownership, vehicle and battery costs, charging and supporting infrastructure, regulation and incentives, OEM product availability, consumer and fleet preferences, and technology maturity.
- Segment the forecast across relevant dimensions such as geography, vehicle type, powertrain, customer segment and commercial use case to identify markets where the same technology may follow very different adoption trajectories.
- Model future adoption by combining historical trends with forward-looking market variables to develop different adoption scenarios, utilizing a base case alongside accelerated and slower scenarios to test changes in economics, infrastructure, regulation and technology availability.
- Convert the forecast into commercial opportunity by connecting demand forecasts to business decisions, including product portfolio priorities, capacity planning, technology investments, market entry, supply-chain requirements and partnership opportunities.
This approach allows automotive companies to move from a broad technology outlook to a clearer view of where demand is likely to emerge, which technologies warrant attention, and when investment may be required.
Nexdigm’s Case
Nexdigm assessed an automotive component supplier’s exposure to emerging powertrain technologies across 6 markets and 8 applications, modelling adoption through 2030 based on OEM launches, infrastructure readiness, vehicle demand and segment economics.
High-Priority Targets: 3 immediate technology-market opportunities worth US$20–50 million.
Long-Term Potential: 2 additional applications likely to become viable as technology and infrastructure mature.
The assessment identified where to invest now, where to build capabilities for future demand, and where continued monitoring is warranted.
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Harsh Mittal
+91-8422857704
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